CONFERENCE: ETech 2003 DATE: Fri Apr 25 2:10pm LOCATION: Westin San Jose, Winchester Room -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TITLE OF PAPER: Business (Operating?) Models for Stupid Networks URL OF PRESENTATION: _URL_of_powerpoint_presentation_ PRESENTED BY: David Isenberg REPRESENTING: isen.com -------------------------------------------------------------------------- REAL-TIME NOTES / ANNOTATIONS OF THE PAPER: {If you contribute anything to this document add your name, e-mail, URL} Trevor F Smith | tfsmith@parc.com | http://trevor.smith.name/ Isenberg: worked at Bell Labs for 12 yrs until writing "The Rise of the Stupid Network" "digested by corporate immune system" 6 yrs since then - has been on the speaking circuit "Business model" vs "Operating model" - Operating a stupid network isn't a business End-to-end Principle: intelligence should be at the end devices; function of the network should be to move bits from one end device to another if you can do something at the middle OR the edge, do it at the edge. the edges know more about the application than the middle does new applications can be created more easily when stuff happens at the edges Fast Pipe Always On Get Out Of The Way Tim Bray 3/17/03 == "deliver the bits, stupid" (Isenberg) network should be as mysterious as a disk drive or keyboard ...but then telephone companies don't have anything to sell... instead of network services, we buy network-enabled products designed for any network application, and plug them in. None of the big network apps (email, IM, blogging, IP telephony...) was introduced by the telcos E2E makes Telephony yet another application "intelligent network" Future of voice communications: VON? IP telephony now sounds as good as POTS Global IP Sound - sounds better than PSTN (8khz vs 3 khz; similar to cell phone delay) no telco SIP (Session Initiation Protocol) ...will do for communications what HTTP did for documents presence ...will make voice just like anything else danger: SIP could be co-opted by companies and embraced & extended but there's an open source implementation (anyone have a reference?) Anything about Layer 3 becomes Yet Another Application layer 3 is the boundary between "stupid" and "applications" E2E breaks the telco model separates the applications from the physical layer so can't use revenue from apps to subsidize the physical infrastructure problem: What's the business/operating model to maintain the physical layer? The Paradox of the Best Network "The Best Network is the hardest one to make money building and running" - Roxane Googin network is a pure commodity; there's no scarcity competition becomes very difficult Alternatives to Physical-Layer Competition monopoly government agency customer ownership ...not necessarily mutually exclusive, and there's overlap Customer already owns last mile (100mbps in our homes) but telco controls narrow pipe between customer network and fat backbone Scenario #1: telcos make progress illegal #2: "clueless, futile competition" per 1996 telecom act #3: monopoly or govt agency #4: customer-owned networks take over the access business, link direct to backbone More Issues: Front-loaded capex, or capex grows with number of users? ROI model or Greater Good model? when you build a network, is return on investment a requirement? eg no ROI needed for an office LAN - it's cheap, you don't need to justify it Politics of E2E freedom of speech, pluralism, diversity... NOT regulation, monopolies, lock-in... Questions: How to we get there from here? Audience answer (Schuyler Erle): grassroots Isenberg: referenced Swedish experiment to install dark fiber to every block installer of the fiber didn't light it up, other carriers did that repeating the model elsewhere in Europe (http://www.isen.com/papers/edge/2cities.html) Wireless - scaling problems Question about cellular networks, I don't understand what the Q is... "What do I want from a telephony company?" not from "the network", but from "a telephony company" (ref Vonage) isenberg predicts a big fall for wireless telecom companies; what will happen? (no prediction, several possible outcomes) maybe there will be a big market crash due to spectacular corporate failures of major telecom companies what happens to the people that don't have access to the new Stupid network, when the existing PSTN starts to break down? (there's political & social issues here, not technical) -------------------------------------------------------------------------- REFERENCES: {as documents / sites are referenced add them below} "Dawn of the Stupid Network": http://isen.com/papers/Dawnstupid.html "Paradox of the Best Network": http://netparadox.com/ FAQ: http://netparadox.com/fcc_faq.html -------------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTES ON / KEY TO THIS TEMPLATE: A headline (like a field in a database) will be CAPITALISED This differentiates from the text that follows A variable that you can change will be surrounded by _underscores_ Spaces in variables are also replaced with under_scores This allows people to select the whole variable with a simple double-click A tool-tip is lower case and surrounded by {curly brackets / parentheses} These supply helpful contextual information. References: People who contributed to the creation of this document: (Add your name here) E-MAIL FOR BOUNCEBACK: [If you would like to receive a copy of this document after the session, then add your e-mail address below - ] wesley@felter.org, richard_gayle@excite.com, dannyg@dannyg.com, allen@hutchison.org,